The new year and decade started off where the last one finished as major stock market indexes opened the year by reaching new highs. The good spirits, supported by continued progress toward a Phase One trade deal with China, boosted markets.
Key Points for the Week
- Stocks wrapped up an impressive decade near new highs.
- Risk returned to the market with the killing of General Qassem Soleimani of Iran.
- The U.S. employment report will provide its monthly glimpse into the strength of the labor market on Friday.
On Friday, those good spirits were challenged by potential risks after the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad by a U.S. military drone. The attack came as tension has increased between the two countries following rocket attacks against U.S. bases, U.S. air strikes, and attacks against the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.
Market reaction was predictably negative, but rather muted. The S&P 500 edged just 0.1% lower last week. The global MSCI ACWI was basically unchanged as a weaker U.S. dollar supported emerging market stocks. The Bloomberg BarCap Aggregate Bond Index rallied 0.4%. The S&P finished 3.0% higher in December and 9.1% higher for the fourth quarter. A positive bump in the last two days of the year pushed the 2019 S&P 500 return to 31.5%.
The U.S. employment report on Friday will cap a busy week of economic data, as some releases were delayed by the holiday. Expectations are for continued healthy job growth with 160,000 new jobs expected. Job growth of above 100,000 means the economy is producing enough jobs for those entering the labor force.
|BBGBARC US Agg Bond||3.7%|
|Top 10 Yr. Sector: Technology||16.8%|
|Bottom 10 Yr. Sector: Energy||1.4%|
|Top 10 Yr. Style Box (M*): Lrg. Growth||15.0%|
|Bottom 10 Yr. Style Box (M*): Sml. Value||10.7%|
Source: Morningstar Direct; Sector Data uses MSCI Sectors and style box data uses Morningstar Indexes
Rewards, Risks, and Vulnerability
2019 ended cathartically. Performance last year was phenomenal. The last quarter was very positive, and many stock market indexes reached new highs before edging lower the last day of the year. The major issues affecting markets — U.S.-China trade, Brexit, and Federal Reserve policy plans — all became clearer in December. The turning of the calendar month also wrapped up a decade of strong returns for U.S. stocks, and the absence of a recession aided performance.
As the accompanying table shows, U.S. stocks experienced a phenomenal 10 years. After enduring the tumult of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy rebounded at a slow and steady pace. Despite worries to the contrary, the economy never went into recession and, by some measures, accelerated. Unemployment reached a 50-year low and wages increased.
Over the last decade, the U.S. bested global markets, and technology was the top performing U.S. sector. Asset classes with greater emphasis on technology tended to perform well. U.S. stocks have a larger exposure to technology than the rest of the globe, and growth stocks have more of a technology tilt than value stocks.
One mistake investors often make is to assume returns were inevitable and smooth. Investors over the last 10 years bore myriad risks, worries, and uncertainties. The returns were their reward.
The clarity experienced on a number of key issues lies in stark contrast to the news in recent days. Risk returned to markets with potential aftershocks from the death of General Soleimani. As was true several times over the last decade, this geopolitical event poses a risk to markets. We must seek to understand the ramifications policy decisions will likely have on our portfolios.
General Soleimani and Iran have been engaged in exporting conflict and terror throughout the Middle East in recent decades. U.S. policy has focused on making sure Iran doesn’t export much else. The U.S. has actively sought to tighten the economic noose on Iran by limiting the countries to which it can export oil and other trade goods. Because of the sanctions, Iran’s economy is weak, and its direct impact on global markets is relatively small.
The two risks we see as most relevant are increased violence and Iran successfully curbing the oil flowing from other nations in the Middle East. The muted market reaction to the killing suggests most investors don’t see the risks as particularly high. The S&P 500 fell just 0.7% and oil rose less than 4%. Reprisals are expected, but neither Iran nor the U.S. are anxious for escalation into an extended conflict, especially a full-out war.
The risks from the oil market have been mitigated by two important factors. First, the global economy is less energy-intensive than in the past. A greater emphasis on services and improved fuel-efficiency have reduced oil’s importance. Second, the U.S. is now an energy exporter, and if prices increase and oil from the Middle East can’t reach Asia and Europe, it has the ability to scale up production for export.
We wrapped up last week’s review with this sentence: “The potential for strong returns is possible, but it comes with the willingness to bear risk.” This week serves as a good reminder the types of returns we have seen in the last decade were earned by bearing discomfort and concern.
[In preparation for the Lunar / Chinese New Year, we will be featuring stories on China over the next few weeks.]
In the 1970s, U.S. banks were limited on the interest rates they could charge customers, so they gave away toasters and other gifts to stand apart from the competition. Rather than toasters, Chinese banks are seeking deposits by addressing the shortage of pork. Swine flu has forced the Chinese to cull 60% of its pigs. The Chinese take a week off for the Lunar New Year, and pork demand spikes during this period. Small banks are seeking to take advantage of the situation by holding a raffle for a larger supply of pork. In order to enter to win, individuals must open a new account at the bank. I hope the winner brings something to carry the pork home in.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 INDEX
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
MSCI ACWI INDEX
The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 23 emerging markets (EM) countries*. With 2,480 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds
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