September Woes

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Published by Taylor Financial Group

As we move deeper into September, it is a good time to remember the performance woes that this month has brought investors so many times before.  LPL Financial’s Research Team recently released an article which described September as a “banana peel month” and noted that some of the “largest dips tend to take place during this month.”  That being said, the article does point out that the economy is still strong and that there is no immediate cause for concern.  However, it does set an expectation that investors could see a spike in volatility simply because that has often been the case during this month in the past.

 

When looking simply from a historical perspective, it is easy to see why September makes investors uneasy.  This month has had the most market drops of 10% or more with a total of seven instances.  Additionally, since 1928, the S&P has only been higher in September 43.8% of the time, which makes it the only month under 50%.  Finally, when looking at returns since 1928, this month has had the worst average returns with the S&P being down on average 1%.

With all these statistics, it is easy to become unnerved about the market.  However, as we mentioned, the economy has remained strong and, at this time, there is no prominent indication of that changing.  Furthermore, trends can change over time, which is a hard detail to focus on when looking at returns that go as far back as 1928.  In reviewing the 10-year average return by month, September is actually slightly positive, while three other months have had an average negative return.

Looking at historic performances and trends is by no means a perfect methodology for predicting future returns.  At Taylor Financial Group, we do not believe in trying to predict what may or may not happen in September.  But, we do try to provide our clients with portfolios that help reduce volatility by promoting diversification and offering hedged strategies such as Swan-Defined Risk.  Furthermore, we note historic trends of increased volatility and offer clients the ability to take advantage of a market pullback by keeping cash balances to be invested opportunistically.

If you have any questions about September’s historic volatility and want learn more about how your portfolio is positioned to handle a potential market pullback, feel free to reach out to us at any time.

Sources:
LPL Research, Everything You Wanted To Know About September But Were Too Afraid To Ask, September, 2017
 
Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.
 
The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
 
Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Cetera Advisor Networks LLC is under separate ownership from any other named entity.

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