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Market Commentary: Markets Respond Favorably to News of Second Vaccine’s Positive Results

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: Markets Respond Favorably to News of Second Vaccine’s Positive Results

Special Update A second COVID-19 vaccine announced very positive results in its initial trial. A biotechnology company announced Monday their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 94.5% effective. The study also showed there were few side effects observed in the vaccine trial. The effectiveness is very high and will likely give the world two vaccines to start protecting people in coming months.

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Market Commentary:  COVID-19 Vaccine Shows Positive Results and Market Soars Even After Tight Election

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: COVID-19 Vaccine Shows Positive Results and Market Soars Even After Tight Election

Special Update The first COVID-19 vaccine to announce results reported very positive data early Monday morning. Two notable pharmaceutical and biotech companies announced on Monday their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective. The study also showed there were no side effects observed in the vaccine trial. The effectiveness is higher than many medical experts expected and represents a major step forward in efforts to contain the virus. News on other vaccine trials is expected in coming weeks and months.

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Market Commentary: Uncertainty with Election, Pandemic Cause 5.6% Drop in S&P 500.

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: Uncertainty with Election, Pandemic Cause 5.6% Drop in S&P 500.

Last week, markets moved less on the recovery of today and more on the uncertainty of tomorrow. U.S. GDP increased 33.1% (see Figure 1) after a massively negative report last quarter. Strong growth in consumer spending provided the biggest push to the overall economy. Earnings also continued to improve. Originally forecasted to drop 21.1%, strong earnings from internet-based businesses cut the expected dip to 9.8%.

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Market Commentary: Unemployment Continues Slow Recovery as U.S. Corporations Beat Earnings Expectations

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: Unemployment Continues Slow Recovery as U.S. Corporations Beat Earnings Expectations

The lack of progress on a federal stimulus bill weighed on markets last week while economic and earnings data provided investors some good news. Initial unemployment claims finally dipped below 800,000. The improvement and adjustments to previous weeks’ estimates suggest the labor market is continuing to recover. Corporate earnings also provided a positive surprise. While many companies are still to report, initial results show 84% of S&P 500 companies are beating estimates.

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Market Commentary: Retail Sales Spike, but Unemployment Claims Still on Rise

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: Retail Sales Spike, but Unemployment Claims Still on Rise

Retail sales rebounded as U.S. consumers continued to put salaries and money left over from the CARES Act into the economy. Retail and food service sales surged 1.9%, more than doubling expectations of 0.8%. The gains raised overall retail sales 5.4% above year-ago levels as consumers make up for consumption lost during the early days of social distancing (Figure 1).

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Market Commentary: Stocks Rallied in Hopes of Potential Stimulus Package

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: Stocks Rallied in Hopes of Potential Stimulus Package

U.S. stocks rallied on expectations that a stimulus package will be passed in the coming months and additional packages will be easier to pass. The Trump administration offered proposals closer to the most recent Democratic offer. Even if no deal is reached prior to the election, polls suggest the Democratic Party may control the presidency and both houses of Congress. One-party control makes it significantly easier to pass legislation.

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Market Commentary: Markets Face Uncertainty as Economy Recovers, Tension Grows in Washington

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: Markets Face Uncertainty as Economy Recovers, Tension Grows in Washington

Politics created the biggest market headlines last week. Investors wrestled with the tone of the presidential debate and how it contributes to political uncertainty. Stimulus negotiations between the House and the Trump administration narrowed the gap between the two parties, but they were unable to produce a deal. The president contracting COVID-19 contributed to the sense of uncertainty.

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Market Commentary: S&P Continues Decline, but Home Sales on the Rise

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: S&P Continues Decline, but Home Sales on the Rise

The S&P 500 declined for the fourth straight week. On Wednesday, the index of large U.S. companies had declined just more than 9.5% but rallied late in the week. The S&P 500 is 7.8% below its Sept. 2 high. The four-week decline has matched the characteristics of a price adjustment after a large run-up in markets.

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Market Commentary: Restaurants are Rebounding, but S&P Still Lags

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: Restaurants are Rebounding, but S&P Still Lags

Retail sales figures continued a string of economic data pointing toward slowing growth accompanied by a gradual reopening of state economies. Consumers seem willing to take some risks. Retail and food service sales rose 0.6% last month. (See Chart 1.) Increased sales at restaurants contributed most to the monthly gains.

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Market Commentary: The S&P fell for the Second Week Straight and Inflation Rises

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: The S&P fell for the Second Week Straight and Inflation Rises

Stocks continued to retreat as losses on Tuesday were large enough to push the market down more than 2% for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 has retraced 6.7% of its massive rally from the lows in March.

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