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[post_content] => This week was midterm elections and we’ve had many questions about what it all could mean, which we’ll tackle in today’s blog. We consider it a great honor to vote, and while we may not know the final results of the election for days (or even months), what we do know is the election will probably impact the market.
2022 was one of the worst starts to a year ever for stocks, but we remain hopeful that a major low took place in the middle of October, which would be fairly normal given October’s propensity for being a bear market killer.
One of our favorite tables we’ve shared this year is right here. The first few quarters of a midterm year tend to be quite weak when looking at a 4-year presidential cycle, which played out all too well this year. The really good news is some of the best quarters are upon us, so don’t lose faith quite yet.
The Calendar Is a Tailwind
The average midterm year since 1950 corrected 17.1% on average, the most out of the four-year presidential cycle. That’s the bad news, the good news is stocks gained 32.3% on average a year off those lows and have never been lower. Although we don’t know if October 12 is officially the lows or not (but we think it very well could be), there could be a lot of opportunity for bulls over the coming year.
Here’s another look at the same thing, but breaking it down by each year.
Should we be surprised that stocks have had a tough go so far in 2022? Maybe not, as this next chart shows the worst time for stocks is a midterm year under a new President. With the S&P 500 up only 2.4% on average these years, it helps put the disappointing year so far into perspective. Now check out what happens the following year, which might be something many investors could be smiling about soon enough.
One of the most well-known investor axioms is “Sell in May and Go Away,” as those six months are some of the worst of the year. It played out this year, but what we don’t hear nearly as much about is how well stocks tend to do from November through April. Sure enough, looking at those six months during a midterm year and we find that stocks have been higher the past 18 times.
Election Aftermath
You might hear that certain sectors will do well if so-and-so wins, or that these sectors will do poorly if this-or-that happens. The truth is no one really knows. After President Trump won in 2016 it was widely assumed coal and steel would do great, the opposite happened. Then under President Biden green energy was to do great and dirty crude and coal would struggle – but, again, the opposite happened. It just isn’t clear cut.
What is clear cut is stocks historically have done quite well the year after the midterms. As you can see in our last chart, the S&P 500 gained a year after the election every single time since World War II, with a very solid 14.1% average gain over that year. Why is this? Likely markets hate uncertainty and there is a lot of that leading up to a midterm election. But once the election is over the uncertainty is likely lifted.
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[post_content] => If you have a Traditional IRA, you may benefit from doing a Roth conversion this year (and if you already performed a conversion this year, you still have time to do an additional conversion before year end). We typically favor Roth IRAs (over Traditional IRA balances) as Roth IRAs grow tax free and your withdrawals are also tax free, once certain conditions are satisfied. However, we believe that now more than ever you should consider doing a Roth conversion while the stock market is down. In addition, this could be your last chance to do a conversion this year as you must complete the Roth conversion by December 31, 2022 for it to count for the 2022 tax year!
A lower stock market makes the Roth conversion strategy more appealing. This is because when your Traditional IRA account value decreases, you are able to convert the same number of shares at a lower cost. For example, let's say you have a Traditional IRA worth $1,000,000 and the value drops to $800,000. You can save on taxes by converting the lower value ($800,000) rather than the original higher value ($1,000,000). Please note this is just an example and you would not have to convert the entire amount of your Traditional IRA.
Please let us know if you are interested as soon as possible so that we don't miss this opportunity!
Converting from a Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA is a taxable event.
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[post_content] => Kevin Oleszewski, Senior Wealth Planner
‘Tis the season to give. In fact, 37% of charitable giving occurs during the last quarter of the year — 20% of it in December alone, according to a survey conducted by the Blackbaud Institute. And while the holidays are traditionally a time to reflect on our blessings and help those less fortunate than ourselves, there's another factor influencing the timing of these donations — and that's the goal of minimizing a tax bill.
Of course, any charitable donation should be driven by altruism and the desire to make a difference. The great news is that we're a generous society. Despite the uncertainty of the past few years, giving from individual donors remains on the rise. The Blackbaud Institute survey found giving increased 9% in 2021 over 2020, with overall giving rising 19% since 2019.
However, there's nothing wrong with embracing the opportunity to help your own finances while helping others. While most donors give the conventional way, via a direct cash gift, there are other less traditional but impactful ways to give that can also provide a boost to your tax strategy.
Three Tax-Advantaged Donation Strategies to Consider
1. Create a donor-advised fund (DAF)
A DAF is an excellent way to achieve an immediate tax deduction without feeling obligated to give an entire gift at once. With a DAF, you contribute assets — cash, real estate, stock, even cryptocurrency — to a fund you establish through a custodial account, which then becomes a charitable account you personally control. Once open, you can start making gifts right away or you can leave the money in there indefinitely, potentially taking advantage of growth as you determine how you want to spend it.
The entire amount of your initial donation to the DAF is deducted the year you establish it, even if you've yet to choose a charity. That makes it a savvy way to offset sky-high taxes you otherwise might owe in a year when you have a particularly high level of income.
Here's an example: Let's say you intend to gift $10,000 a year over four years. You can put $40,000 into the DAF today and get the entire deduction, yet still maintain your regular schedule of making a $10,000 gift each year.
This strategy also can protect you and your money in case the charity changes policies or otherwise aligns with activities or positions you disagree with. Although the gift to the DAF is irrevocable, you can redirect the remaining funds to other causes whenever you wish.
2. Use a qualified charitable distribution (QCD) from your individual retirement account (IRA).
If you are age 70 ½ or older, you can transfer money from your IRA to a charity as a qualified charitable distribution (QCD), which makes it tax-free up to $100,000 ($200,000 if you file jointly). That can be particularly handy for those who have to make Required Minimum Distributions (RMD), which is the minimum amount of money you must withdraw by law from any tax-deferred account, like an IRA or 401(k), starting at age 72. Reducing your IRA through charitable donations also reduces your overall taxable estate, which can eventually protect your beneficiaries from a tax hit.
This strategy can also be a savvy way to eliminate the tax liability if you convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, which some people prefer because the money in the Roth IRA will then grow tax free. Talk to your advisor about whether a conversion would make sense for your overall financial goals.
3. Donate valuable assets that aren't cash.
While most of us think of making donations to nonprofits in cash, there are other advantageous ways to support an organization. For example, donating stock that has appreciated allows you to do good for the charity and also potentially eliminate your capital gains burden.
Here's how it works: Rather than liquidating the stock and owing the capital gains tax, you can donate the security directly to the organization to be eligible for a deduction of the full fair market value, up to 30% of your adjusted gross income (AGI).
You also can donate items like vehicles, works of art, sports memorabilia or rare books, to name a few. Often, these are items that were bequeathed by another person yet don't hold value to you, personally. For example, a client of mine once donated valuable manuscripts to a university and received a sizable tax deduction.
The benefit again with these nontraditional assets is you will receive the entire value as a tax deduction without having to absorb the capital gains tax you otherwise would owe.
With a car (and potentially other goods depending on their value), work with the charity to determine the amount of the deduction. Often, especially in the case of a vehicle, a charity will sell the item, which means your deduction is based on the gross proceeds of the sale. There are exceptions, such as if the charity intends to use a vehicle for their own purposes — to deliver meals, for example. The IRS has a handy guide to all your questions about vehicle donation and how to determine the value of donated property. And always check with your accountant to ensure you are complying with all legal requirements.
Give Generously, but Also Wisely
No matter how you choose to give, here are three things to keep in mind.
Research the Charity Before Donating
Confirm the charity you've chosen is a 501(c)(3), which means it has tax-exempt status. Then evaluate other facets that are important to you, such as its financial health, key programs, results, and accountability and transparency policies. You can use a resource like Charity Navigator or GuideStar to compare various charities to find one that aligns with your goals.
Get the Requisite Paperwork
Always check with your tax planner to make sure you have the correct documentation should the IRS come knocking. Typically, contributions of money or goods will require a letter from the charity confirming how much of your gift was tax-deductible. Then verify you have the required forms.
For example, you'll need to complete Form 8283 for noncash charitable contributions, and/or Form 1098 for contributions of motor vehicles, boats and airplanes. You also may need a written appraisal from a qualified appraiser depending on the value of the item. Always confirm with your tax preparer you have the most up-to-date version of the forms and the correct paperwork.
Time it Right
While it's always a good time to be generous, there are some years you might find it even more beneficial to achieve a tax deduction. Often, it's when you had a surprisingly high amount of income in one year — for example, if you sold your company. That's when conducting thoughtful tax planning can be vital to lessen the blow, and a philanthropic donation can be a key part of that. Remember that in order to qualify as a tax deduction, the gift must be paid before the end of the calendar year.
Most individual itemizers can deduct up to 60% of their AGI to charity, and if your donation exceeds that, you can carry over the remainder for up to five tax years. However, note that tax laws and income brackets can change frequently so double-checking you're in compliance is always wise.
Finding creative ways to donate can benefit both you and the charity. And as you retain the glow of doing something nice — and also receive a tax deduction — you are liable to agree that it is better to give than receive.
Just remember to talk with your financial planner and accountant to ensure you're benefitting to the full extent possible.
Converting from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA is a taxable event.
Generally, a donor advised fund is a separately identified fund or account that is maintained and operated by a section 501(c)(3) organization, which is called a sponsoring organization. Each account is composed of contributions made by individual donors. Once the donor makes the contribution, the organization has legal control over it. However, the donor, or the donor's representative, retains advisory privileges with respect to the distribution of funds and the investment of assets in the account. Donors take a tax deduction for all contributions at the time they are made, even though the money may not be dispersed to a charity until much later.
For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor. Neither Cetera Advisor Networks LLC nor any of its representatives may give legal or tax advice.
Kevin Oleszewski is not affiliated with Cetera Advisor Networks, LLC.
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[post_content] => Kevin Oleszewski, CFP® Senior Wealth Planner
As the tax year draws to a close, many high-income investors will look to reposition their portfolios to intentionally generate losses as a way to offset gains — an investment strategy known as tax loss harvesting.
The goal? A net neutral tax position.
What Is Tax Loss Harvesting?
I sort of think of tax loss harvesting as the eharmony of investment planning. At its core, it's about matchmaking and there are three core steps to making it all work:
Here’s another look at the same thing, but breaking it down by each year.
Should we be surprised that stocks have had a tough go so far in 2022? Maybe not, as this next chart shows the worst time for stocks is a midterm year under a new President. With the S&P 500 up only 2.4% on average these years, it helps put the disappointing year so far into perspective. Now check out what happens the following year, which might be something many investors could be smiling about soon enough.
One of the most well-known investor axioms is “Sell in May and Go Away,” as those six months are some of the worst of the year. It played out this year, but what we don’t hear nearly as much about is how well stocks tend to do from November through April. Sure enough, looking at those six months during a midterm year and we find that stocks have been higher the past 18 times.
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[post_content] => Change happens. And whether we carefully plan for these changes, or we are taken by surprise by change, it's how we react to those changes that help dictate if they will ultimately be to our advantage. Whether it's a sudden inheritance, or a divorce settlement that is higher than anticipated, deciding what to do with an unexpected sum of money should happen after emotions have been processed.
Download the checklist today to get started.
[post_title] => Investing for Women
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[post_content] => Have questions about how to incorporate your employee benefits into your financial plan? Talk to your financial advisor today or request an initial meeting with one of our highly qualified fiduciary advisors.
Download the checklist today to get started.
[post_title] => Commonly Overlooked Employee Benefits
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[post_content] => Determining what age to begin claiming your Social Security benefit can be a big decision. Do you claim early at age 62? Take it at your full retirement age? Or delay until age 70? There are a wide variety of factors that can go into your final decision, and you should always consult with a qualified professional first. We put together a few charts to help you start that conversation.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Medicare can be a confusing topic for many. You can't simply sign up anytime you want – and your enrollment timeframe can depend on a variety of factors. To help you figure out when your eligibility begins, we have put together the following flowchart.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Trillions of dollars will soon transfer from the Silent Generation and baby boomers to their adult children in what financial experts are calling “The Great Wealth Transfer.”
Are you one of the people expecting an inheritance in this historic transfer of wealth? Have you thought about the implications of receiving a tidy sum as a beneficiary?
Get ready and informed for your role as a beneficiary.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Change happens. And whether we carefully plan for these changes, or we are taken by surprise by change, it's how we react to those changes that help dictate if they will ultimately be to our advantage. Whether it's a sudden inheritance, or a divorce settlement that is higher than anticipated, deciding what to do with an unexpected sum of money should happen after emotions have been processed.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => A More Positive 2023
Stocks continued to move higher last week, with the Dow back above 34,000 and officially closing at a new seven-month high along the way. After energy led the rally, several other sectors, including financials, health care, materials, and industrials are now participating and showing strength. This is encouraging and makes us more confident with our call that the bear market ended in mid-October.
A Healthy Consumer
Last week, a strong retail sales report boosted economic growth expectations for the fourth quarter. But the big question is whether consumer spending will remain strong in 2023. This is important because consumption, or lack thereof, will determine whether the U.S. will experience a recession over the next 12 months. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, so that’s pretty much the ball game. We believe the consumer is in a strong position for several reasons.
Most consumers spend out of their wages, so it helps to look at overall income in the economy. The chart below shows the year-over-year growth in aggregate weekly earnings, i.e., weekly earnings across all workers, which can be attributed to three sources:
Aggregate earnings growth has slowed this year, from 11% to 8%. However, it is still higher than the pre-crisis pace of just under 5%. Employment growth will likely slow in 2023. Payroll gains have averaged about 289,000 over the past three months, but even half that number would create solid income growth comparable to pre-pandemic levels.
Consumers Still Have Excess Savings
Between April 2020 and July 2021, consumers saved an estimated $2.3 trillion over and above the pre-crisis trend. Much was due to fiscal policy, such as stimulus checks and expanded unemployment benefits. However, for the top 25% of earners, it was almost entirely due to reduced spending amid the pandemic.
Over the past year, consumers have drawn down these excess savings by an estimated $800 billion. But savings are still high.
Most of these excess savings are held by the top 50% of income earners. Inflation tends to hit lower-income workers harder, which means they probably had to draw on more of their excess savings to fund purchases.
But the consumer got a big break recently in the form of retreating gas prices. Gas prices are now almost back to where they were on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a sense, just like higher gas prices were effectively a tax on incomes, falling gas prices are akin to a tax cut.
Consumers Still Have Borrowing Capacity
Credit card spending is rising, which is not surprising. Prices are higher and consumers are spending more (even adjusted for prices). But more important than total debt is the debt service burden for households, which is close to record lows. The chart below shows households’ debt service as a percent of disposable income. As of the end of the second quarter, this metric was at 9.6%, well below the pre-pandemic average of 11.2%.
Also, credit utilization rates are still low. Consumers have yet to tap into their credit cards and home equity lines of credit to the same extent as before the pandemic hit. Utilization rates are also well below average levels over the past few decades.
Easing Inflation is Positive for Consumers
Excess savings were drawn down this year because income gains were not keeping up with prices. But as inflation eases, real incomes will likely start rising again, and the rate at which that excess savings pot gets depleted should slow down.
Of course, the other side of more robust real incomes is that demand will be strong, which could keep inflation on the higher side. However, we on the Carson Investment Research Team believe inflation will ease due to idiosyncratic downward pressure, as the same forces that boosted inflation reverse.
This should ease pressure on the Fed, and it looks like Fed members are recognizing that they’ve already done a lot by raising rates as much as they have. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting suggest most officials favor a slowdown in the pace of interest rate increases.
All in all, the consumer is in a good position as we go into 2023, raising the likelihood that consumption will remain strong over the next year — and that should help avoid a recession despite the rapid pace of interest rate hikes in 2022.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Ryan is a non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Compliance Case # 01565296
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[post_content] => It is Thanksgiving week, so we want to review a few reasons for investors to be thankful. Yes, it has been a tough year. But things are looking better, and we expect more improvement in 2023.
Gridlock Can Be Good
The first reason to be thankful is stocks have continued to rally off their October lows, and now we have another potential positive: gridlock.
Lastly, Republicans have a narrow majority in the House. At the time of this report, they are expected to have a three-seat majority, the narrowest margin their party has held since 2001 and 2002. We reviewed years with narrow margins and found they generally lead to larger gains. When the House majority is held by fewer than 20 seats, the S&P 500 has gained a median of 19.5% since World War II. Additionally, the first year of a new Congress with a narrow majority, which in this case would be 2023, has been higher nine of the past 10 times.
The U.S. Consumer Remains Strong
The next reason to be thankful is the consumer remains extremely strong. In fact, the consumer’s strength in the face of numerous obstacles is one of the biggest surprises of the year. Last week, October retail sales rose 1.3%, beating expectations for a 1% jump. Prior months were revised higher as well.
One significant reason was stronger gasoline sales, which was a function of prices at the pump rebounding. But sales were also strong across most other areas, including auto sales, restaurant and bar sales, online spending, and even building materials.
One way to account for higher prices across several of these categories is to look at “real retail sales,” i.e., sales adjusted for prices. Real sales rose 0.8% in October, which is the fastest pace in eight months. Real sales had slowed in the summer (May-August), but they are picking up again — a sign of rising “real” incomes thanks to a pullback in inflation. Real sales are now up 3% from December 2021 through October. And in real terms, consumers are spending 10% more than expected if we just extended the pre-pandemic trendline. That’s massive!
Since consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of the U.S. economy, real sales offer another clue that a recession is not right around the corner. Many have been sounding the alarm, but with a consumer this strong we don’t see a recession on the horizon. And that’s definitely something to be thankful for.
More Good News on Inflation
As we noted last week, inflation at the consumer level is coming down quicker than expected. Used cars, apparel, and medical insurance all saw solid improvements. Additionally, rent and food inflation are finally showing signs of slowing as well. These sectors were significant contributors to the massive inflation spike.
Last week also produced good news from inflation at the producer level. That’s positive for consumers, because if it costs less to produce goods, companies can sell them for lower prices. In fact, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in October fell 0.5% after falling significantly the last few months. The year-over-year pace is now about 11%, having decelerated from a peak of 19% in March 2022. It still has further to go to return to the pre-pandemic pace of about 2%, but the trend is very encouraging.
All of this means less pressure on the Fed to continue its extremely aggressive stance on hiking rates to slow inflation. The Fed has given the patient a lot of medicine, and with real signs of improvement Fed members might pause to let the medicine work its magic. In fact, we think the odds of the Fed pausing rate hikes early next year are increasing greatly.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Ryan and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Crypto-Currencies, Digital Assets and other Block-Chain related technology (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, NFTs and others) are not securities, not regulated, and not approved products offered by Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. Crypto-currencies and other block-chain related non-securities products cannot be recommended, offered, or held by the firm.
Compliance Case # 01559707
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[post_content] => On the heels of a huge month for stocks in October, the bull continued to soar in November, as the S&P 500 had its best week since June and the NASDAQ had its best week since March. Sparking much of the rally was news that inflation has likely peaked and is finally slowing. We’ll discuss that more below, but the bottom line is this could be a major catalyst for a continuation of the rally. We noted recently that many bear markets have ended in October, and we continue to think the odds are above average that it happened once again.
The chart also shows that food prices (dark red bars) continue to account for a large chunk of inflation. But we got a break here as well. “Food at home,” i.e., groceries, which make up close to 9% of the inflation basket, rose just 0.4% in October. That’s the lowest in more than a year and well below the average 0.7% monthly increase that occurred over the first nine months of 2022.
The Goods Deflation We’ve Been Waiting For
Private inflation data has shown decelerating prices for goods outside of energy and food. At Carson, our chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, wrote recently about collapsing used car prices. Retailers have been telling us for a while that they’re discounting items as well. We’ve just been waiting for the official inflation data to catch up, and it looks like that’s finally happening.
A broad list of goods, including used cars, saw prices fall in October, which is what makes it even more encouraging. The items below make up about 11% of the inflation basket (and 14% of the core basket). Falling household goods prices probably reflect the slowdown in residential activity, as home sales collapse amid higher mortgage rates.
Are Rents Breaking?
The best part about goods deflation is it offsets high services inflation. As the chart below shows, vehicles (blue bars) are now below the zero line for the second month in a row. We also got good news in the form of medical care services, which was a function of falling health insurance premiums.
The largest sector of the inflation basket is shelter, including rents on primary residences and “Owners’ Equivalent Rent” (OER), which is the “implied rent” that owner-occupants would have to pay if they were renting their homes. The latter is also determined using rents of equivalent homes. In other words, OER is effectively a measure of rents, and altogether rents make up a whopping 40% of the core inflation basket.
Rents have been rising, putting a lot of upward pressure on core inflation. As shown in the previous chart, housing (gray bars) grew larger and larger over the past year.
However, market rents have decelerated quite rapidly over the last few months. The problem is this movement hasn’t shown up in the official inflation data because of methodological reasons (we wrote about this quite extensively).
But the official rental data may be beginning to turn. Rent of primary residences rose 0.7%, and OER rose 0.6% in October. These are smaller increases than what we’ve seen over the previous couple of months. Make no mistake, a 0.7% rise is still a lot — it translates to an annualized pace of 9%, which is why the Fed is really worried about it. But hopefully the October report is a sign that the official data is beginning to turn lower.
A Soft Inflation Print Acts as a Pressure Release Valve
The softer-than-expected core inflation print was the catalyst for the S&P 500 Index gaining 5.5% on the day the inflation report was released, marking its best day since April 2020. The chart below shows some historical perspective for days that saw more than 5% gains. One year later, markets were up 91% of the time, with an average return of almost 28%.
The market’s response shows how much negativity and expected hawkishness from the Fed has been priced in. A soft report was like a pressure release valve.
We Need Time, and the Inflation Data Bought Us Time
One month does not make a trend, but the October inflation report was still very positive. Several leading indicators have shown decelerating prices. (We’ve written about this here and here.) The official data is clearly lagging, but the timing of the inflection point was uncertain. And it looks like we may have just gotten it.
This report is important for two main reasons:
Firstly, the goods deflation in October offset the upward pressure from strong price increases in services, which is primarily rents. It effectively buys time for official rental data to catch up to the private data, which are showing a rapid decline in rents.
Two, it buys time for the Fed. If this was yet another hot inflation print, that would have put enormous pressure on the Fed to go for a 75 bps (0.75%) increase in December. But now it looks like a 50 bps increase is the most likely scenario, assuming the November CPI report doesn’t surprise us by coming in hot. Investor expectations have shifted significantly. The probability of a 50 bps hike has gone from a near coin flip (57%) to 85%.
An interesting point Fed Chair Jerome Powell made a couple of weeks ago was that improved inflation data is not a precondition for slowing the pace of rate hikes. Instead, it’s the terminal rate that matters. The terminal rate is the highest rate the Fed will hike up to this cycle, and at the September meeting, Fed members released projections estimating it to be around 4.6%. Markets have expected this number to move close to 5% when the Fed releases new projections at its December meeting. If the October inflation numbers had come in hot, there would have been a lot of pressure on Fed officials to take the terminal rate projection well above 5%. But this report eases that pressure, and investors are currently looking at a terminal rate just shy of 5%.
We also saw a marked downshift in policy rate expectations one to three years from now. That makes sense. If inflation decelerates quickly, then rates don’t have to be as high as previously expected. Of course, a lot will happen between now and then. This is why we focus on the near term as far as investor expectations and Fed projections go. They can change significantly.
Last week was a big one with some major events, including the midterm elections and the crypto mess. But we were once again reminded that the overarching concerns right now are the Fed’s next steps, and for that, look to inflation.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Ryan and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Crypto-Currencies, Digital Assets and other Block-Chain related technology (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, NFTs and others) are not securities, not regulated, and not approved products offered by Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. Crypto-currencies and other block-chain related non-securities products cannot be recommended, offered, or held by the firm.
Compliance Case # 01550993
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[post_content] => As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.75% to the 3.75-4% range on Wednesday. This was the fourth successive 0.75% hike. The initial market focus was on a new line inserted in the official statement, wherein the Fed nodded in the direction of decelerating the pace of rate hikes. Markets reacted positively to this, but Chair Jerome Powell was quick to remind investors that the level of rates matters more than the pace to get there. And Fed officials think the level (or “terminal rate”) should be higher than what they thought it should be in September. That immediately sent stocks into sharp negative territory.
Midterm Elections are Here
As the midterm elections have approached, we’ve received numerous questions on the potential impact. On the Carson Investment Research team, we encourage clients not to mix politics with investing. We know that investors who stayed out of the markets because they disliked previous administrations missed out on significant gains.
As past elections have shown, the party that lost the prior presidential election is typically more motivated and gains seats in the Senate and House. Should this pattern hold again and the Republicans take both chambers of Congress, stocks will likely benefit as divided government bodes well for the markets. A Democratic president and Republican-controlled Congress has seen the S&P 500 gain more than 16% on average during the calendar year. This occurred in the late 1990s under President Bill Clinton. If the Democrats keep control of the Senate, the market impact is about a coin flip. But the good news is a Democratic president with a split Congress is also a bullish scenario.
The overall picture, and good news, is the year following a midterm election has been positive in 20 out of 20 years since WWII, with an average return of 14.1%. While it is not guaranteed to happen again, the outlook based on history is positive.
The Carson Investment Research team recently chatted with Libby Cantrill from PIMCO on the firm’s new podcast, Facts vs Feelings. Libby is an expert who helps investors understand the intersection of politics, policy, and markets.
A Tale of Two Employment Reports
The October payroll report offered a mixed picture. Two headline numbers stand out:
As the chart shows, the difference between employment gains reported by the two surveys was larger in April and June of this year. In April, nonfarm payrolls rose by 368,000, while the household survey reported employment fell by 353,000. In June, nonfarm payrolls rose by 293,000, but the household survey saw employment falling by 315,000. It goes the other way, too. In January, the household survey saw employment rise by 1.2 million, while nonfarm payrolls rose “only” 504,000.
However, both surveys reveal a similar picture over time.
Over short periods of time, one survey can accelerate much faster than the other. During the height of the pandemic (Mar-Apr 2020), the household survey reported significantly more job losses than the establishment survey: 25.5 million vs. 22 million. But the household survey caught up and even ran ahead of the establishment survey through January of this year. Now the establishment data is powering ahead while the other slows.
So, is the job market weak or not?
That’s the big question. Given the volatility of the numbers in the household survey, I tend to put more weight on the establishment data, with the caveat that establishment payroll data can be revised, although markets (and the Fed) react to current data.
A more nuanced view is the employment situation is clearly slowing. But 261,000 jobs created in a month is still very strong. In fact, over the 20 years through 2019, a period that covered two economic expansions, the average monthly job gains in months when payrolls grew was about 182,000. And over the three years prior to the pandemic (Mar 2017-Feb 2020), payroll growth averaged about 186,000 per month.
Now, the unemployment rate has increased to 3.7%, but one month does not make a trend. The same thing happened in August when the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% before falling back to 3.5% in September.
What Matters (to the Fed) is Wage Growth
A key piece of information in the payroll reports is average hourly earnings. This is the mechanism through which the Fed believes it can (and needs to) pull down inflation. From the Fed’s perspective, weakening the labor market will reduce income growth, and that should ultimately reduce spending power and inflation.
Wage growth is in a clear downtrend. Average hourly earnings ticked slightly higher for private workers last month, but over the past three months it’s grown at an annualized pace of 3.9%, well below the past year’s pace and not much above the pre-pandemic pace of 3.1%. In fact, for production and non-supervisory workers, who tend to spend more of their incomes, the three-month pace of wage growth has fallen to 4.3%, down from 7.5% at the end of last year and approaching the pre-pandemic rate of 3.4%.
The good news is wage growth appears to be slowing even as employment remains strong. This is the “soft landing” scenario: wage pressure and inflation easing without a breakdown of the labor market, which runs counter to what the Fed believes will (and should) happen. Hopefully, easing wage pressure means the Fed doesn’t have to ratchet rates higher and higher. We just need inflation to cooperate, and that depends on a lot more than wages.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Compliance Case # 01543039
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[post_content] => Stocks ended another strong week, continuing the trend of buyers stepping up in October. Several years have seen October kill off bear markets, and 2022 may join that list. In fact, the only two years that started off worse for the S&P 500 than 2022 were 1974 and 2002, and both of those vicious bears ended in early October.
Earnings Dominated by Negative Tech Headlines
Just about half the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the third quarter, but some large tech misses have dominated headlines. Technology makes up a significant part of the S&P 500 index, but other important sectors have done well. The energy sector reported several positive earnings surprises. While energy makes up just about 5% of the index, it is the biggest contributor to the S&P 500’s revenues and earnings. Also notable is the airlines industry reported a profit of $3 billion in the third quarter compared to a loss of $731 billion a year ago. That’s a reflection of strong consumer spending on the services side, even as goods consumption has slowed.
The blended profit margin for the S&P 500 is 12%, which is higher than the five-year average of 11.3% and only slightly below last quarter’s 12.2%.
Economic Growth Picked Up, But Much Goes on Behind the Data
On the face of it, the third quarter GDP report was very positive, with growth rebounding to 2.6% quarter-over-quarter (annualized). This pushed back the question of whether the economy is in a recession, although many of these numbers can and will be revised in the future. But make no mistake, growth has slowed considerably this year. The economy grew 0.1% over the first three quarters of 2022, compared to 4.1% over the last three quarters of 2021.
As with much of this data, it’s always useful to look under the hood. In this case, a breakdown of how the various major components of GDP contributed to growth in the third quarter:
The biggest single contributor to GDP growth was “net exports,” which is exports minus imports. Exports surged 14% during the quarter (annualized rate) even as goods imports fell by almost 9%. Foreigners bought more U.S. goods and services as Americans cut back on goods spending. This category tends to be volatile, so it’s advisable to view it in a broader context.
The numbers came down to two competing stories: services versus residential investment, i.e. housing.
As the chart above shows, goods consumption was a drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. Spending on goods fell about 1%, mostly driven by fewer purchases of cars, gasoline, and groceries.
But consumers did spend — they just spent a lot on services. While services spending slowed from a torrid 4.6% pace in the second quarter, that was never sustainable. For perspective, the 2.8% pace in the third quarter is well above the average pace of services spending prior to the pandemic (about 1.7%).
On the other side was residential investment, which makes up only about 3% of GDP. It completely negated the strong services number by falling a whopping 26% over the third quarter! The reason is clear — an aggressive Federal Reserve hiking rates to get on top of inflation. Interest rate increases have led to a surge in mortgage rates, which in turn has led to a complete reversal of housing activity.
Residential investment consists of three main components: home construction (single-family and multi-unit), improvements/renovations, and broker commissions/other costs related to sales. As the chart below shows, each of these components crashed last quarter, especially single-family construction as builders pulled back and brokers’ commissions as sales activity fell.
Housing activity is plunging, and expect that to continue as mortgage rates rise above 7%. The good news is that decline is currently being countered by spending on services, powered by rising incomes and strong balance sheets.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Compliance Case # 01535775
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[post_content] => A More Positive 2023
Stocks continued to move higher last week, with the Dow back above 34,000 and officially closing at a new seven-month high along the way. After energy led the rally, several other sectors, including financials, health care, materials, and industrials are now participating and showing strength. This is encouraging and makes us more confident with our call that the bear market ended in mid-October.
A Healthy Consumer
Last week, a strong retail sales report boosted economic growth expectations for the fourth quarter. But the big question is whether consumer spending will remain strong in 2023. This is important because consumption, or lack thereof, will determine whether the U.S. will experience a recession over the next 12 months. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, so that’s pretty much the ball game. We believe the consumer is in a strong position for several reasons.
Most consumers spend out of their wages, so it helps to look at overall income in the economy. The chart below shows the year-over-year growth in aggregate weekly earnings, i.e., weekly earnings across all workers, which can be attributed to three sources:
Aggregate earnings growth has slowed this year, from 11% to 8%. However, it is still higher than the pre-crisis pace of just under 5%. Employment growth will likely slow in 2023. Payroll gains have averaged about 289,000 over the past three months, but even half that number would create solid income growth comparable to pre-pandemic levels.
Consumers Still Have Excess Savings
Between April 2020 and July 2021, consumers saved an estimated $2.3 trillion over and above the pre-crisis trend. Much was due to fiscal policy, such as stimulus checks and expanded unemployment benefits. However, for the top 25% of earners, it was almost entirely due to reduced spending amid the pandemic.
Over the past year, consumers have drawn down these excess savings by an estimated $800 billion. But savings are still high.
Most of these excess savings are held by the top 50% of income earners. Inflation tends to hit lower-income workers harder, which means they probably had to draw on more of their excess savings to fund purchases.
But the consumer got a big break recently in the form of retreating gas prices. Gas prices are now almost back to where they were on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a sense, just like higher gas prices were effectively a tax on incomes, falling gas prices are akin to a tax cut.
Consumers Still Have Borrowing Capacity
Credit card spending is rising, which is not surprising. Prices are higher and consumers are spending more (even adjusted for prices). But more important than total debt is the debt service burden for households, which is close to record lows. The chart below shows households’ debt service as a percent of disposable income. As of the end of the second quarter, this metric was at 9.6%, well below the pre-pandemic average of 11.2%.
Also, credit utilization rates are still low. Consumers have yet to tap into their credit cards and home equity lines of credit to the same extent as before the pandemic hit. Utilization rates are also well below average levels over the past few decades.
Easing Inflation is Positive for Consumers
Excess savings were drawn down this year because income gains were not keeping up with prices. But as inflation eases, real incomes will likely start rising again, and the rate at which that excess savings pot gets depleted should slow down.
Of course, the other side of more robust real incomes is that demand will be strong, which could keep inflation on the higher side. However, we on the Carson Investment Research Team believe inflation will ease due to idiosyncratic downward pressure, as the same forces that boosted inflation reverse.
This should ease pressure on the Fed, and it looks like Fed members are recognizing that they’ve already done a lot by raising rates as much as they have. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting suggest most officials favor a slowdown in the pace of interest rate increases.
All in all, the consumer is in a good position as we go into 2023, raising the likelihood that consumption will remain strong over the next year — and that should help avoid a recession despite the rapid pace of interest rate hikes in 2022.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Ryan is a non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Compliance Case # 01565296
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[post_content] => Watch Carson Group’s Senior Wealth Planner Ryan Yamada’s informational webinar that can help you discover which giving strategy you should pursue for tax efficiency.
[post_title] => Which tax-efficient giving strategy is right for me?
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[post_content] => Wondering what Q4 might bring? Watch Carson Group’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick’s Quarterly Market Outlook webinar for Q4, now available for viewing on-demand.
[post_title] => Q4 2022: Quarterly Market Outlook
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[post_content] => It’s not too late to make some adjustments and finish this year fiscally strong. Find out how in our on-demand webinar Keys to Finishing the Year Financially Strong with Carson Group’s Senior Wealth Planners Tom Fridrich and Kevin Oleszewski.
[post_title] => Keys to Finishing the Year Financially Strong
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[post_title] => Markets, Policy & Elections
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[post_content] => Debra Taylor was named a Five Star award winner for 2023 in September 2022. By earning this honor, Debra has shown an outstanding commitment to clients.
As such, it is an honor to announce that Debra Taylor, CPA/PFS, JD, CDFA, Founder, Lead Wealth Advisor has earned the 2023 Five Star Wealth Manager Award, demonstrating a strong commitment to providing exemplary services to all her clients.
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on objective research criteria. Five Star Professional’s research team evaluates candidates from across major markets annually on ten criteria associated with outstanding service. Each of our award winners has shown a commitment to clients, strong industry credentials and has been evaluated on the quality of his or her practice. Debra Taylor has met these criteria and has been honored with the 2022 Five Star Wealth Manager award.
ABOUT TAYLOR FINANCIAL GROUP, LLC
Taylor Financial Group, LLC (TFG) is an independent wealth management firm located in Franklin Lakes, NJ that specializes in serving affluent women and their families, high net worth families, and small business owners. We have more than twenty years of experience in wealth management and use our diverse tax and legal background to provide objective, comprehensive, and unique financial solutions to all of our clients. https://www.taylorfinancialgroup.com/
ABOUT FIVE STAR WEALTH MANAGER AWARD
The Five Star Wealth Manager award awarded to Debra Taylor: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 administered by Crescendo Business Services, LLC (dba Five Star Professional), is based on 10 objective criteria. Eligibility criteria – required: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Actively registered as a registered investment adviser or as a principal of a registered investment adviser firm for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (As defined by Five Star Professional, the wealth manager has not: A. Been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in registration being suspended or revoked, or payment of a fine; B. Had more than a total of three settled or pending complaints filed against them and/or a total of five settled, pending, dismissed or denied complaints with any regulatory authority or Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process. Unfavorable feedback may have been discovered through a check of complaints registered with a regulatory authority or complaints registered through Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process; feedback may not be representative of any one client’s experience; C. Individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint; D. Filed for personal bankruptcy within the past 11 years; E. Been terminated from a financial services firm within the past 11 years; F. Been convicted of a felony); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients. Evaluation criteria – considered: 6. One‐year client retention rate; 7. Five‐year client retention rate; 8. Non‐institutional discretionary and/or non‐discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Education and professional designations. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth managers. Award does not evaluate quality of services provided to clients. Working with a Five Star Wealth Manager does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager Award list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. The Five Star award is not indicative of the wealth manager’s future performance. Working with a Five Star Wealth Manager or any wealth manager is no guarantee as to future investment success nor is there any guarantee that the selected wealth managers will be awarded this accomplishment by Five Star Professional in the future. For more information on the Five Star award and the research/selection methodology, go to fivestarprofessional.com. Listing in this publication and/or award is not a guarantee of future investment success. This recognition should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client.
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Debra Taylor, CPA/PFS, JD, CDFA™
Rachel Nagler, 39, has worked part time since she was 22, but she will never be financially independent, according to her father. She is legally blind with a seizure disorder and mild cognitive impairment, the result of birth trauma.
For her parents, Sam and Debra Nagler of Concord, Mass., planning for retirement required them to focus on Rachel’s future as well as their own.
“She has very limited earning capacity,” Mr. Nagler, 70, said. “The concern is, is this sufficient for her for the rest of her life?”
His wife, who is 68, has been their daughter’s primary caregiver since her birth.
“Nobody knows Rachel, and takes care of Rachel, and knows every need of Rachel, and is on top of everything other than my wife,” Mr. Nagler said. “That’s a worry because she’s not going to live forever.”
or parents of children who have serious disabilities or special needs, the challenges of growing and preserving their wealth are magnified exponentially, and the stakes are much higher. While they are trying to plan for their own retirements, these parents need to simultaneously secure the stability of a son or daughter who will be dependent on them until — and even after — their deaths.
“We want to make 100 percent sure that after we’re gone, there’s no issue,” Mr. Nagler said.
Under the best of circumstances, caring for an adult child with special needs is physically and emotionally taxing. As these parents age, the question of who will house, feed and drive their son or daughter after they no longer can becomes an urgent one.
But not all parents in this situation are aware of the myriad challenges they face. “Getting them to understand that they need to think differently about their retirement in this scheme of things is a key step. And it’s not simple,” said Mary Anne Ehlert, a certified financial planner and founder of Protected Tomorrows, a financial planning firm that specializes in families with special needs.
For example, Ms. Ehlert said, she has to consider a multigenerational time horizon for these clients’ portfolios. “We might be a little more conservative, but we still need growth. We need growth longer,” she said. But a conservative-leaning asset mix has drawbacks, too. “Conservative doesn’t always give us the growth we need,” she said. In addition, many families opt for a portion of their portfolio to be in cash or cash-like liquid investments in the event that their child suddenly needs a new piece of expensive equipment, like a speech-assistive device.
Often, one spouse will sideline a career or leave the work force entirely to provide care, reducing their own ability to save for retirement.These families find their budgets strained by a host of ancillary costs: paying for gas to drive their children to therapy appointments and day programs; buying supplies like adult diapers and waterproof bedding, compression tights to promote circulation, specialized diets — the list goes on.
Even when the disabled individual qualifies for public health assistance, finding affordable, adequate housing is especially difficult. Some people require supervised care in a group home, while others need in-home care in a dwelling modified to accommodate physical limitations. In both cases, waiting-list times are measured in years.
As a result, many parents feel they have no choice but to keep their son or daughter at home, said Harry Margolis, an estate planning lawyer near Boston who works with families with special needs. “Often, they’re still living with parents even when everybody’s getting older,” he said.
This can be expensive in terms of lost opportunity costs. To spare their child the upheaval, parents might forgo the opportunity to downsize into a less-expensive or more accessible home while they are still healthy enough to do so.
Since most of the public benefits available to special-needs and disabled people are administered at the state level through Medicaid, parents of a special-needs child might not be able to move to a state with a lower cost of living. Doing so could mean the adult child would lose access to their benefits and be placed at the bottom of waiting lists for services in a new state.
Some families, however, move to states that offer more generous benefits, even if it means a higher cost of living. “That’s a real struggle for these families, particularly as Mom and Dad age,” said Debra Taylor, founder of Taylor Financial Group in Franklin Lakes, N.J. “Some look to relocate to different states because some states are more hospitable than others.”
Hefty costs, and less income
Douglas and Susan Rohrman moved out of the Chicago area five years ago, alarmed at the declining health of their daughter Liz, who suffered a traumatic brain injury just before the age of 2. Now 39, the younger Ms. Rohrman has a host of physical challenges, including partial paralysis that impairs her mobility and ability to swallow and cognitive impairment.
“Liz was not getting great care in Illinois, so it was time to sell the house and move everything,” Ms. Rohrman, 74, said. “I researched this up the wazoo.”
The Rohrmans moved to the San Diego area because resources such as housing and day programs were more readily available. But when Covid struck, the couple felt that the only way they could keep their daughter safe — she had been hospitalized with pneumonia three times in 2019 — was to take her out of the care home they had moved her into just a few years earlier, the one they’d uprooted their lives for.
It was an enormous adjustment in responsibilities, but also in finances.
“When we were doing our taxes, I sort of sat down to see where my money was going. And Liz is a large part of it,” Ms. Rohrman said,ticking off items for which she has to pay out of pocket now that her daughter is living at home.
For example, swallowing difficulties mean that the younger Ms. Rohrman has to have a thickening agent added to her water. That alone costs several thousand dollars a year, her mother said, and there are a host of other unique expenses, such as for stabilizing footwear that helps her daughter walk. “I came up with like $9,000, not counting everything I buy at the grocery store and Walmart,” she said.
Mr. Rohrman, 80, had deferred his retirement at a law firm several years to keep earning income, but he stopped working when the family moved. The combination of much higher expenses, a drop in income and a flagging stock market demanded they re-evaluate their finances.
Unique challenges for single parents
These financial struggles are magnified for single parents. “Care is inevitably more expensive when you have a single parent,” Ms. Taylor said, because they have to rely much more on paid caregivers.
Laura Weinberg, 59, became the sole caregiver for her son Will, who is autistic and nonverbal, when her husband, a lawyer for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, was killed in the Sept. 11 attacks.
“I was in the weird situation of being widowed when I was 38, dealing with a 4-year-old who was a danger to himself,” she said. She was also a caregiver for her ailing mother and maintaining the family home in northern New Jersey. “I was overwhelmed,” she said.
“Estate planning was confusing and extremely expensive when I started to put a toe in the water,” she said. “I got all kinds of wrong information.”
Ms. Weinberg said she would like to have speech-assistive equipment for her son so that he can communicate, but the cost is prohibitive. Instead, she has pieced together a solution with an iPad and specialized apps. “It’s more modest than it might have been, but some of them are in the many thousands of dollars,” she said.
Navigating a ‘byzantine’ system
For parents of special-needs children, retirement planning and estate planning have to take place in tandem. Special-needs trusts and life insurance policies in one or both parents’ names are two of the most commonly used tools. Both have to be structured in compliance with the complex eligibility regulations for public health benefits, since many are means-tested.
Mr. Margolis said that even wealthy families have to navigate the byzantine landscape of government benefits, because many of the services available, including housing, are administered entirely through these programs. “In order to qualify for S.S.I. and Medicaid, in most cases you’re limited to $2,000 in countable assets,” he said.
“For a disabled individual, a lot of time, maintaining eligibility is critical,” said Joellen Meckley, executive director of the American College of Financial Services’ center for special needs. “I can’t tell you how many times family members, with the best of intentions, will name a disabled adult child as a beneficiary, not understanding that getting that money could immediately jeopardize their ability to access public benefits,” she said, referring to parents’ wills, retirement plans or life insurance policies.
This makes it imperative that money intended for a disabled individual be held in a specialized financial instrument such as a special-needs trust.
The money in a trust can go toward quality-of-life enhancements for the special-needs individual like cable TV, a cellphone or computer, better food, care providers and rent or utilities, without jeopardizing their public benefits, Mr. Margolis said.
There are two main categories of special-needs trusts. First-party trusts are established with assets that belong to the individual. The drawback is that these trusts have a payback clause: After the individual dies, any money remaining in the trust goes to reimburse the state for the cost of their care over the years.
Third-party special needs trusts are established and funded by someone else for the benefit of the disabled individual. “A third-party one takes in the assets of other people, like gifts, inheritances or life insurance proceeds,” said Brian Walsh, senior manager of financial planning at SoFi.
These trusts are often funded or supplemented with parents’ life insurance proceeds. “A lot of times, life insurance can be used to kind of create a funding source when one or both of them passes away,” Mr. Walsh said.
A “second-to-die” life insurance policy is a frequently used tool. Both members of a couple are covered under it, and the policy pays out after the second spouse dies, providing a more affordable option than insuring each parent separately.
“The purpose of this policy is that it’s going to pay out a death benefit to fund the child’s remaining needs no matter when the parents die,” Mr. Walsh said.
Since the funds in these trusts are generally conservatively invested, experts say the final challenge is making sure that the amount in the trust will provide an adequate income stream.
Getting that balance right is something that the Rohrmans, in California, struggle with.
When Mr. Rohrman stopped working, that meant not only paring back household spending, but revisiting their investing strategy as well.
“We’re financially very conservative. We know we can’t be like we were in our 30s and 40s in terms of our investment mix, spending and so forth,” Mr. Rohrman said. “We think about it a lot. We don’t let it dominate us.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/27/business/retirement-special-needs.html
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
[post_title] => COVID’s Financial Toll Isn’t What You Think
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[post_content] => By: Erin Wood, CFP®, CRPC®, FBS®, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning, Carson Group
Laura and Caroline are in their late 50s. Friends since meeting at a playgroup for their toddlers, both were in long-term, seemingly happy marriages. Laura married her high school sweetheart right after they graduated from college and worked as an RN while her husband attended medical school. When their first child was born, Laura decided to become a stay-at-home parent. She just celebrated sending her last child off to college and was looking forward to enjoying an empty nest with her husband.
Already established in her career as an accountant for a large insurance firm, Caroline married a bit later, at 33. Today, she’s a financial controller for the same firm. Her spouse owns his own landscaping business. Caroline is the high-wage earner in the family.
Unfortunately, both women are now surprised to be facing a “gray” divorce: a divorce involving couples in their 50s or older. Each will need to make some tough choices as they deal with the emotional devastation of unraveling a long-term marriage. Although my focus as a financial planner is to help my clients find their financial footing during and after divorce, I also encourage clients to build a strong network of family and friends as well as a therapist or clergy person to offer critical emotional support during this time.
Read full article on Kiplinger.com
[post_title] => Emerging Financially Healthy After a Gray Divorce
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[post_content] => Franklin Lakes, NJ- WomenCertified Inc., home of the Women’s Choice Award identifies Financial Advisors and Firms based on rigorous research focused on 17 points of objective criteria, in addition to references of validation from the advisor’s peers and/or superiors. As such, it is an honor to announce that Debra Taylor has earned the Women’s Choice Award, demonstrating a strong commitment to providing exemplary services for female clientele.
Read the full article
[post_title] => Debra Taylor Receives the Women’s Choice Award® for Providing Exemplary Financial Services to Women
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[post_content] => Debra Taylor was named a Five Star award winner for 2023 in September 2022. By earning this honor, Debra has shown an outstanding commitment to clients.
As such, it is an honor to announce that Debra Taylor, CPA/PFS, JD, CDFA, Founder, Lead Wealth Advisor has earned the 2023 Five Star Wealth Manager Award, demonstrating a strong commitment to providing exemplary services to all her clients.
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on objective research criteria. Five Star Professional’s research team evaluates candidates from across major markets annually on ten criteria associated with outstanding service. Each of our award winners has shown a commitment to clients, strong industry credentials and has been evaluated on the quality of his or her practice. Debra Taylor has met these criteria and has been honored with the 2022 Five Star Wealth Manager award.
ABOUT TAYLOR FINANCIAL GROUP, LLC
Taylor Financial Group, LLC (TFG) is an independent wealth management firm located in Franklin Lakes, NJ that specializes in serving affluent women and their families, high net worth families, and small business owners. We have more than twenty years of experience in wealth management and use our diverse tax and legal background to provide objective, comprehensive, and unique financial solutions to all of our clients. https://www.taylorfinancialgroup.com/
ABOUT FIVE STAR WEALTH MANAGER AWARD
The Five Star Wealth Manager award awarded to Debra Taylor: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 administered by Crescendo Business Services, LLC (dba Five Star Professional), is based on 10 objective criteria. Eligibility criteria – required: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Actively registered as a registered investment adviser or as a principal of a registered investment adviser firm for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (As defined by Five Star Professional, the wealth manager has not: A. Been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in registration being suspended or revoked, or payment of a fine; B. Had more than a total of three settled or pending complaints filed against them and/or a total of five settled, pending, dismissed or denied complaints with any regulatory authority or Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process. Unfavorable feedback may have been discovered through a check of complaints registered with a regulatory authority or complaints registered through Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process; feedback may not be representative of any one client’s experience; C. Individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint; D. Filed for personal bankruptcy within the past 11 years; E. Been terminated from a financial services firm within the past 11 years; F. Been convicted of a felony); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients. Evaluation criteria – considered: 6. One‐year client retention rate; 7. Five‐year client retention rate; 8. Non‐institutional discretionary and/or non‐discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Education and professional designations. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth managers. Award does not evaluate quality of services provided to clients. Working with a Five Star Wealth Manager does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager Award list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. The Five Star award is not indicative of the wealth manager’s future performance. Working with a Five Star Wealth Manager or any wealth manager is no guarantee as to future investment success nor is there any guarantee that the selected wealth managers will be awarded this accomplishment by Five Star Professional in the future. For more information on the Five Star award and the research/selection methodology, go to fivestarprofessional.com. Listing in this publication and/or award is not a guarantee of future investment success. This recognition should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client.
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